![]() economy was in its worst shape since the Great Depression.)Īnd this disconnect underscores a key point that political scientists John Sides, Lynn Vavreck, and I have repeatedly made about the 2016 election: Despite a media narrative that attributed Trump’s political rise to widespread economic dissatisfaction and anxiety, it was partisan and race-based opposition to Obama’s presidency that drove public opinion about the economy. (By contrast, fewer than half of Republicans said the economy was getting worse at the height of the coronavirus recession, when the U.S. Even after a prolonged period of growth in GDP, household income, employment and the stock market during Barack Obama’s presidency, about 70 percent of Republicans consistently thought the economy was getting worse in 2016 - nearly the same share who are now pessimistic about the economy’s trajectory under Biden. These shifts are particularly striking for Republicans when considering the actual state of the economy. Americans’ perceptions of the national economy have changed wildly depending on whether a Democrat or a Republican is in the White House. Take this data from Civiqs daily tracking polls, which has asked Americans about the economy each day since June 2016. On the one hand, this is to be expected, as political scientists have found that how we think about the economy is increasingly rooted in how we identify politically rather than in actual economic conditions. Yet, despite these optimistic economic indicators, most Republicans say the economy is getting worse. And economic forecasters now predict annual GDP growth in 2021 will soar to levels the country hasn’t witnessed in nearly 40 years. The United States added 916,000 jobs in March, smashing Dow Jones expectations and the unemployment rate is now at its lowest level (6 percent) in over a year. This might seem surprising considering the national economy - which experienced one of its worst downturns thanks to the coronavirus pandemic - is now objectively improving. Since Joe Biden became president, several surveys have found a sharp rise in Republican pessimism about the economy.
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